Uncertainty manipulation is not only about control—it is also about ***(fore)casting***. To forecast is, quite literally, to cast a bet on the future. It is an attempt to ***pre-dict*** the unknown, to pull a veil of predictability over the murky horizon ahead. Gambling, weather forecasting, and speculation in financial markets—whether in forex, commodities, or stocks—are obvious examples. But this act of casting bets on the unknown runs far deeper than these high-stakes domains. Every act of planning, every business decision, every strategic move is ultimately a wager on future conditions. Project management, corporate strategy, even the simplest of daily decisions all rely on assumed outcomes. And nowhere is this more apparent than in economic life, where vast networks of transactions rest upon the fragile scaffolding of future expectations. As anthropologist Mary Douglas aptly put it: > _“An individual can expect to get future rewards only if he can reasonably suppose that those in his debt will be in a position (and somehow obliged) to repay him. If he has to adapt to uncertainty, he will be wise to cancel those expectations. If a whole society starts to adapt to general uncertainty, its future will be stripped of anticipated returns.”_[^1] At the very core of human interaction lies an implicit bet: the assumption of a stable and predictable future. This expectation forms the foundation of **trust**—the invisible currency upon which cooperation, contracts, and social cohesion depend. Trust is nothing more than a tacit belief that one can reasonably anticipate the actions of others. But when uncertainty takes hold, it erodes this trust, making people hesitant, defensive, and unwilling to engage in cooperative behaviour. In such conditions, individuals retreat to self-protective measures, minimising their exposure to risk and limiting their interactions. This erosion of trust does not merely affect economic exchanges—it disrupts the very fabric of society. When predictability fades, institutions falter, relationships weaken, and the incentive to collaborate dissolves. It is no wonder, then, that much of our daily activity is dedicated to banishing uncertainty. Whether we are planning for the next fiscal quarter, deciding where to invest, or even scheduling an event, we seek the reassurance of stability. But this pursuit comes at a cost. In our effort to impose order on an inherently unpredictable world, we tether ourselves to rigid models, static maps, and outdated assumptions. We expect reality to conform to our expectations, rather than adjusting our expectations to the fluid nature of reality itself. All predictive activity carries within it the implicit hope of minimising uncertainty, yet reality—ever dynamic, ever shifting—rarely cooperates. Forecasting, then, is less about seeing the future than it is about managing the anxiety that comes with the unknown. We do not predict to **know** the future; we predict to **cope** with it. But as history has repeatedly shown, the future is not a puzzle to be solved—it is a landscape to be navigated, full of surprises that no map can fully capture. [[Causality|Next page]] <hr> [^1]: Douglas, Mary. Risk and Culture: An Essay on the Selection of Technological and Environmental Dangers