Most of us meticulously avoid uncertainty because we instinctively associate it with ***doubt***, ***insecurity***, and ***fear***. This is of practical importance, because our decision-making under uncertainty is heavily skewed by this emotional coupling. We can see this clearly in our attitude to risk. Most of us tolerate risk in situations in which we stand to ***gain*** or see opportunity. However, we become risk averse when we focus on potential ***loss***. This fundamental duality is found in all life. Due to the constant need for nutrition and evolutionary fitness points, life sometimes operates in ***exploration*** mode: an active search for new opportunities and reward with a ***high tolerance for risk***. However, once an opportunity is seized or a reward acquired, life switches to ***exploitation*** mode: an efficiency-focused use of resources in which risk and uncertainty are ***avoided*** at all cost. In which of these modes we operate largely determines our behaviour.[^1] However, this adversarial system of exploration / exploitation is easily hacked and manipulated. Lotteries turn a profit because they call attention to potential gain (exploration), and insurance companies increase profits by highlighting potential losses (exploitation). Other methods, like FUD, are more deleterious. FUD stands for fear, uncertainty, and doubt, a highly efficient propaganda technique employed in sales, marketing, and public relations. It consists in the spread of disinformation that appeals to fear, triggering the risk and loss aversion typical of the exploitation mode. This tactic can lead to emotional responses that are highly effective in altering decision-making processes. For example, in the business world, companies might spread dubious and speculative information about competitors’ products to make consumers hesitant to purchase them, steering them towards their own offerings instead. In this state, an audience is more likely to chose the safer option at hand, usually a political incumbent or an established legacy product.[^2] The emotional responses triggered by FUD are deeply rooted in the human aversion to risk and the unknown. Fear leads to caution, uncertainty can cause paralysis in decision-making, and doubt may undermine confidence in previously held beliefs or other options. These emotions can cloud judgment, making individuals or groups more susceptible to manipulation. In political campaigns, employing FUD can sway public opinion against a particular candidate or policy without providing substantial evidence, relying instead on primal emotional responses to the mere insinuation of risk or danger. We associate fear, insecurity, and doubt with uncertainty, because they are causally linked. But although they are related, they are also distinct from one another. Uncertainty is what ***causes*** these emotions. It is the trigger for a complex battery of electro-chemical signals produced by the amygdala in our brain. It is how evolution has conditioned us to respond to uncertainty, but these emotions are ***not*** uncertainty itself. [[Practical Certainty|Next page]] <hr> [^1]: Preuschoff K, Mohr PNC and Hsu M (2013) Decision making under uncertainty. Front. Neurosci.7:218. doi: 10.3389/fnins.2013.00218 [^2]: Raymond, Eric Steven, ed. (2003-12-29). ["FUD"](http://www.catb.org/~esr/jargon/html/F/FUD.html). _[The Jargon File](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Jargon_File "The Jargon File")_. Version 4.4.7