Thinking about uncertainty is hard. Writing about it, as I’ve discovered, is even harder. But the reason why isn’t immediately obvious. **Uncertain** is an everyday word—something only partially known, not entirely predictable. Sounds simple enough. And yet, as you’re about to find out, it’s anything but. I have come to believe that uncertainty is one of the most profoundly misunderstood concepts we encounter. Not because it’s complex in the way quantum mechanics or general relativity is complex, but because it is elusive. Slippery. Defined as much by absence as by presence. This is what makes uncertainty so difficult to grasp: it isn’t a thing, but a relationship with something that **isn’t**. I borrow the term **absential** from Terence Deacon, who used it to describe phenomena that exist in relation to what is missing. Uncertainty is like that. It emerges from the negative space of the unknown, the gaps in our knowledge, the shadows cast by what we don’t see. And trying to wrap our minds around something that is, by definition, shaped by absence? That’s no easy task. It requires confronting our own ignorance, acknowledging the limits of our knowledge, and coming to terms with our finitude within the vast, infinite unknown. No small psychological feat! Given this difficulty, we tend to fall into one of two classic traps: 1. We **substitute** uncertainty with a more accessible, well-defined concept—something like “the unknown” or “the unpredictable.” This makes uncertainty seem easier to pin down, but at the cost of flattening its depth and nuance. 2. We assume that uncertainty is **irrelevant**. The first mistake will be tackled in the [[Ignorance|next section]]. For now, let’s focus on the second, because if there’s one thing I want to dispel early on, it’s the illusion that uncertainty doesn’t matter. The argument usually goes like this: uncertainty has no obvious day-to-day function, no direct practical application, so why should we bother thinking about it? But in my view, **nothing could be further from the truth**. Uncertainty isn’t just an intellectual puzzle—it is a force that shapes the very fabric of our lives, from the cellular level upward. It touches everything: how we think, how we perceive the world, how we interact with others, how we form our identities, how we build and organise knowledge. In fact, one could argue that empirical science itself is nothing more than a grand, collective effort in proactive uncertainty management. And the impact doesn’t stop at cognition. Uncertainty influences our decision-making and economic behaviour. It can be the difference between innovation and stagnation, between collaboration and distrust. It moves markets, topples governments, and, in some cases, ignites wars. It is woven into the very structures of society, shaping cultural norms and institutions. So, whatever else we think about uncertainty, let’s not make the mistake of underestimating it. It is no mere abstraction, no idle academic curiosity. It is a formidable force—a beast in its own right. And whether we like it or not, we live in its shadow. [[Boundaries|Next page]] <hr> [^1]: Deacon, T. W. (2011). _Incomplete Nature: How Mind Emerged from Matter_ [Kindle Android version]. Retrieved from [Amazon.com](http://Amazon.com)